Consumer Confidence in Housing Falls Again as COVID-19 Pandemic Surges

Fri, 08 January 2021  |  housing 

Consumer confidence in housing fell in December despite record low mortgage rates. The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index^® (HPSI) fell for the second straight month in December to 74.0, a 6.0 point decline from November. Five of the six HPSI components decreased month over month, and consumers reported a substantially more pessimistic view of homebuying and home-selling conditions, which drove the relatively large monthly change. Year over year, the HPSI is down 17.7 points.

"The HPSI declined for the second consecutive month and fell to its lowest level since May 2020, as consumers adjusted to the worsening COVID-19 conditions of the first few weeks of December – the survey collection period," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Both the 'Good Time to Sell' and 'Good Time to Buy' components fell significantly, with respondents overwhelmingly noting the unfavourability of economic conditions. In particular, the sell-side component fell for the first time since April and by 18 points, reversing most of the increases of the past three months and implying to us that, at least temporarily, potential home sellers might wait to list their homes. If so, this could have the effect of perpetuating already-tight inventory levels and supporting additional (albeit lesser) home price growth, which could contribute to a further moderating of home sales."

Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) fell in December by 6.0 points to 74.0. The HPSI is down 17.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.

• Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 57% to 52%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 35% to 39%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy decreased 9 percentage points month over month.
• Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 59% to 50%, while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell increased from 33% to 42%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 18 percentage points month over month.
• Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months remained the same at 41%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 13% to 16%. The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from 35% to 34%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up decreased 3 percentage points month over month.
• Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months remained the same at 8%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up also remained unchanged at 43%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 40% to 39%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months remained unchanged month over month.
• Job Concerns: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 76% to 75%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 24% to 25%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 2 percentage points month over month.
• Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 24% to 20%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower remained unchanged at 18%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 57% to 61%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 4 percentage points month over month.